Our wheat market is once again in trouble. Prices of wheat and flour are rising fast, even though both Sindh and Punjab governments claim to have enough stock.
A few days ago, the Sindh cabinet decided to release 1.26 million tonnes of wheat to flour mills at Rs3,800 per maund. Punjab, on the other hand, restricted the movement of wheat to other provinces. But despite these steps, the prices keep going up – showing that something deeper is wrong.
The problem began when feed mills started using wheat instead of maize to make animal feed. Around 1.6 million tonnes of wheat were reportedly used for this purpose in just four months.
The Punjab government banned this practice in September, but by then, a large portion of the stock was already gone. Many experts now believe Pakistan will have to import at least 1.5 million tonnes of wheat before the next harvest in March.
The government insists that stocks are enough, but no one really knows how much wheat is actually left. Most of it is in private hands such as traders, flour mills, and even some big investors who bought large quantities during the harvest season when prices were low. These stockists are now waiting for prices to rise so they can sell their wheat at huge profits.
Importing wheat could also cause problems. The cost of imported wheat is around Rs3,500 to Rs3,700 per maund – much higher than the Punjab government’s fixed price of Rs3,000.
Buying wheat from abroad will also put pressure on Pakistan’s foreign reserves. Yet, if imports are delayed, the country may face a severe shortage in early 2026, pushing prices beyond people’s reach.
The government is walking a tightrope but time is running out. If action is delayed again, the only winners will be hoarders, while farmers and consumers will pay the price. *