US intelligence reports indicate Russian President Vladimir Putin remains committed to capturing all of Ukraine and reclaiming parts of the former Soviet bloc, even as negotiators push for a limited peace settlement.
These findings contradict claims from US President Donald Trump and his peace team, who have suggested that Putin is prepared to end the war with less territorial gain than initially sought.
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Russia currently controls around 20% of Ukraine, including most of Luhansk and Donetsk provinces, parts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, and the strategic Crimea peninsula, all of which Putin claims as Russian territory.
US and European intelligence sources maintain that Putin covets additional regions, creating significant challenges for negotiators attempting to secure security guarantees for Ukraine without forcing major territorial concessions.
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Trump’s negotiators, including Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, have proposed a 20-point peace plan involving security guarantees and European troop deployments, but Ukraine’s leadership remains cautious, emphasizing that territorial integrity cannot be compromised.
Officials acknowledge that while progress has been made on security measures, Russia’s refusal to accept foreign forces or reduce territorial ambitions casts uncertainty over any potential agreement, leaving the conflict unresolved.