Global oil supply posted its largest monthly increase in months in June as the recovery of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz lifted Gulf production, although output remained well below pre-war levels because of lingering security disruptions, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Friday.
The agency also raised its oil supply and demand outlooks, citing improving market conditions following the US-Iran framework agreement, while warning that geopolitical risks in the Gulf continue to cloud the market outlook.
According to the IEA’s latest Oil Market Report, global oil production nevertheless remained around 9.4 million bpd below levels recorded before the US-Israel-Iran war, despite the sharp recovery in June.
The report said oil supply from Gulf producers rose by around 3.5 million bpd during the month after output partially recovered following the framework agreement between the US and Iran. However, intermittent disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz persisted because of security concerns and continued reliance on US naval escorts, leaving regional oil production about 11.4 million bpd below pre-war levels. Production from the OPEC+ group, comprising the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, increased by around 2.45 million bpd in June to 38.39 million bpd.
Saudi Arabia accounted for roughly 900,000 bpd of the increase, while Kuwait contributed around 630,000 bpd.
Output from non-OPEC+ producers rose by around 1.63 million bpd to 60.37 million bpd, with the United Arab Emirates accounting for more than half of the increase at approximately 940,000 bpd. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) tankers and other commercial vessels continue to transit the Strait of Hormuz despite renewed military exchanges between Iran and the US and attacks on merchant shipping in the strategic waterway. At least five LNG carriers sailing in ballast entered the strait in recent days, according to ship-tracking data.