A fast evolving strategic environment in Central Asia and South Asia and Asia-Pacific regions has helped Pakistan and Russia to ignore their Cold War past.
In March 2019 they engaged in discussions for strengthening their strategic relationship, including potential Russian participation in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. They are also seeking to increase trade and cooperation as part of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. The development is reflective of both countries’ desire to develop a stronger relationship. Both share concerns regarding the Islamic State state and potential spread of extremism and drugs from Afghanistan. They are also intereted in cooperation in energy and defence sectors. In February 2019 Russia had announced that it was planning to invest $14 billion in Pakistan’s energy infrastructure. The two countries are currently exploring a security partnership.
Three decades can be a lot of time to reflect and rethink. Pakistan and Russia were the bitterest of enemies during the Cold War, but a convergence of strategic interests has brought Islamabad and the Kremlin closer than ever before. In recent past, Pakistan’s foreign minister, national security adviser and army chief have been to Moscow to explore a security partnership focused on combating the threat of transnational jihad-ism emanating from Afghanistan. To formalize these engagements, Islamabad expressed interest in forging a strategic partnership with Moscow in May, 2018.
The Russian-Pakistani relationship has been years in the making. Following the US invasion of Afghanistan, then-president Musharraf visited Moscow in 2003. Russia’s then-prime minister Mikhail Fradkov visited Pakistan four years later. The relationship started to gain traction in 2014 – the year the United States completed the NATO draw down in Afghanistan. It was during that year that Russia lifted an arms embargo on Pakistan, paving the way for the two countries to sign a defence agreement that included a $153 million deal for Mi-35M attack helicopters, as well as an agreement to directly buy the Klimov RD-93 engines from Russia for use in its domestically manufactured JF-17 fighter jet.
Three decades can be a lot of time to reflect and rethink. Pakistan and Russia were the bitterest of enemies during the Cold War, but a convergence of strategic interests has brought Islamabad and the Kremlin closer than ever before. In recent past, Pakistan’s foreign minister, national security adviser and army chief have been to Moscow to explore a security partnership focused on combating the threat of transnational jihad-ism emanating from Afghanistan
Moscow also inked a deal with Islamabad to construct the $2 billion north-south pipeline linking Karachi and Lahore at a time when US sanctions against Russia over its actions in Ukraine had forced the Kremlin to explore other energy export markets. Russia and its new South Asian partner have since inked other energy deals, as Gazprom and Pakistan’s Oil and Gas Development Company signed a joint venture deal in July 2017 to aid in exploration and development.
In 2016, Russia and Pakistan conducted Druzhba, the pair’s first joint military drills. India registered its unease at the war games in the wake of an attack on the Uri army base in Occupied Kashmir that it blamed on Pakistani militants. At the end of that year, Moscow and Beijing also hosted a trilateral summit on Afghanistan with Islamabad, the first of four international conferences involving Russia.
For Islamabad, the need to ensure a friendly regime in Kabul and secure its border with Afghanistan is part of its grand strategy to ensure internal unity in the face of external aggression. Pakistan needs look no further than 1971 to observe the consequences of its failure to maintain this grand strategy.
At the same time, the United States has set its sights on a much bigger challenge: addressing China, which happens to be Pakistan’s strongest ally. Because Beijing’s rise is equally worrisome for India, the United States and India have begun cultivating a strategic partnership. This burgeoning Indo-American cooperation is a cause for concern for Russia, which has shared deep links with India since the Cold War; besides, being equally worrisome for Pakistan.
Russia and China are competing as well as cooperating partners due to tectonic shifts in geo-economic and geopolitical imperatives; thus, a tripartite China-Russia-Pakistan strategic partnership emerges as a natural consequence to American-Indian encirclement in CASA and Asia-Pacific regions. Russia is offering nuclear energy plants to regional competitors Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan in Central Asia besides enhancing security cooperation with all CARs (especially Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan with or without CSTO format) due to convergence of interest on common threats that also helps Russia to reassert in former sphere of influence; Energy starved and inflation-hit Pakistan may also get a similar offer, which may pave the way for long term economic partnership between the two countries. It is time for geo-economics to be in the lead for our foreign policy that has inherent potential for geo-security cooperation because of common stakes.
The writer is a decorated army veteran with rich experience in military and intelligence diplomacy