The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has forecast above-normal rainfall and hotter temperatures across South Asia during the 2025 monsoon season. The monsoon runs from June to September and brings 75–90% of annual rainfall to the region.
Nine South Asian countries, including Pakistan, India, and Bangladesh, jointly released this outlook. Their national weather services warned that changing climate patterns could make local decision-making harder. Global factors like the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole are key influences this year.
Snowfall in early 2025 was also unusually low. It was the fourth-lowest in January and sixth-lowest in March in 59 years. As a result, faster snowmelt in northern areas is expected, which may raise river levels and increase flood risks.
In Pakistan, the Meteorological Department said central and southern areas may see slightly higher-than-normal rainfall. Northeast Punjab is expected to receive the most. However, northern regions might see less rain than usual, raising concerns over water availability.
Officials warned of urban flooding in parts of Punjab and Sindh due to intense rains in the season’s second half. Heatwaves are also expected, especially in southern Pakistan. Still, better soil moisture may help drought-hit areas recover. WMO stressed that early warnings will be vital for managing agriculture, health, and flood risks.