ISLAMABAD — Global commodity prices are expected to fall to their lowest level in six years by 2026, marking the fourth consecutive annual decline, according to the latest Commodity Markets Outlook released by the World Bank.
The report projects a seven per cent drop in prices in both 2025 and 2026, driven by weak global economic growth, an expanding oil surplus, and ongoing policy uncertainty. Falling energy costs are easing global inflation, while lower rice and wheat prices are helping make food more affordable in some developing nations.
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Despite the downward trend, prices will remain above pre-pandemic levels — 23 per cent higher in 2025 and 14 per cent in 2026 compared to 2019. Brent crude oil is forecast to fall from an average of $68 per barrel in 2025 to $60 in 2026, with overall energy prices expected to decline 12 per cent in 2025 and another 10 per cent the following year.
Food prices are projected to decrease by 6.1 per cent in 2025 and a marginal 0.3 per cent in 2026, while fertiliser prices could surge 21 per cent in 2025 before easing five per cent in 2026. Precious metals, however, are bucking the trend — gold and silver prices are set to hit record highs, with gold rising 42 per cent in 2025 and another five per cent in 2026 due to safe-haven demand.
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The World Bank warned that sluggish global growth, rising oil output, and expanding electric-vehicle adoption could further depress prices. Conversely, geopolitical tensions or extreme weather linked to La Niña could drive prices upward. The report urged countries to prioritise technological innovation, diversify production, and adopt market-based strategies to strengthen resilience against price volatility.