South Asia has become a region of global security concern since its nuclearization in 1998. Nearly a month after the military de-escalation the world remains concerend about the after match of the escalation during February-March. In Pakistan, a debate is going on on whether the Pulwama attack of February 14 may have been a false flag operation. Such operations rely on deception and aim for pre-determined outcomes in pursuit of some political or strategic objective.
India has a history of undertaking such operations with varying degrees of success. The grandest and most successful of these probably was the 1971 war. More recent episodes have included the 2016 Uri attack, the Pathankot Air Base attack and the Mumbai attacks of 2008. All these operations were aimed at diverting international attention from oppression of Occupied Kashmir and accusing Pakistan of sponsoring terrorism, that too without a shred of evidence. Some of these operations have been meant to influence election results.
The most recent example of a false flag is the so-called Pulwama suicide attack in which 44 Indian Central Police Reserve Force men were reported killed.
The Bharatya Janata Party of Prime Minsiter Modi has chosen to ground its election campaign on hatred against Pakistan. The timing of the escalation, i.e. just two months before the elections, makes it one of the most suspect operations of the kind. Within minutes of the Pulwama attack it was claimed that an improvised device carrying 350 kilograms of high explosive was used. There was no explanation as to how such a large amount might have been brought across Line of Control as alleged despite the heavy Indian forces deployment and the frequent curfews. Several Indian leaders and a media bandwagon were qick to accuse Pakistan of sponsoring the attacks.
India has a history of undertaking such operations with varying degrees of success. The grandest and most successful of these probably was the 1971 war. More recent episodes have included the 2016 Uri attack, the Pathankot Air Base attack and the Mumbai attacks of 2008. All these operations were aimed at diverting international attention from oppression of Occupied Kashmir and accusing Pakistan of sponsoring terrorism, that too without a shred of evidence. Some of these operations have been meant to influence election results
Pakistan’s response to the violation of its airspace is a part of history. On April 7, Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi warned that another Pulwama-like attack might be straged in the Occupied Kashmir between April 16 and April 20 to justify another military escalation ahead of the polls to mount diplomatic pressure on Pakistan. He said Pakistan had credible intelligence regarding Indian preparations for the purpose. Diplomatic representatives of the permanent members of the United Nations Security Council were briefed on the intelligence. At a meeting of India’s cabinet committee on defence the prime minister was reported to have given free hand to the services chiefs to act against Pakistan. The chiefs reoprtedly said that they had already selected targets beyond the Line of Control.
Prime Minister Modi’s government is deliberately promoting war hysteria against Pakistan. This is height of irresponsibility as escalation beyond a certain point might lead to a war between nuclear powers.
One can conclude that the Pulwama attack was a false flag operation carried out with two objectives. First, to portray the freedom fighters in Kashmir as terrorists; and second to garner popular support in the context of 2019 elections by spreading hatred against Pakistan.
In case of another military escalation by India, Pakistan may have no choice but to use tactical nuclear weapons.
The media as well as opposition parties in India have questioned Indian government’s claims of targeting a militant training camp in Pakistan and downing a Pakistani fighter jet in a dogfight. According to Foreign Policy, US officials have verified that Pakistan’s F-16 fleet is intact.
The writer is a research associate at the Strategic Vision Institute, Islamabad