A potential “super El Niño” later this year could lead to a weaker-than-usual monsoon across the subcontinent, raising concerns about heatwaves, water shortages and agricultural output, a weather expert has warned.
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According to Pakistan Meteorological Department spokesperson Anjum Nazir Zaigham, El Niño conditions are expected to develop during the summer and may intensify into a “super El Niño” by August or September. The phenomenon, which originates in the Pacific Ocean, is known to suppress monsoon rainfall in South Asia.
“If a super El Niño forms, it could significantly impact regional weather patterns, and 2027 may even become one of the warmest years on record,” Zaigham said.
El Niño is part of a broader climate cycle studied by agencies such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which estimates a 50–60% chance of the phenomenon developing between July and September this year. Scientists note that its full global impact typically unfolds months after formation, meaning the most intense effects could be felt in 2027.
The weather system works by weakening trade winds in the Pacific Ocean, causing warm water to shift eastward and altering atmospheric circulation. This can disrupt rainfall patterns worldwide — often bringing drier conditions to South Asia while triggering heavy rains in other regions.
Recent global assessments, including reports highlighted by The Guardian, suggest a strong El Niño could contribute to extreme weather events ranging from droughts to intense storms, depending on the region.
Meanwhile, locally, hot and dry conditions are already being forecast in parts of Pakistan, including Karachi, where temperatures are expected to climb to 36–37°C in the coming days.
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Experts warn that a weaker monsoon could have serious implications for agriculture, water reservoirs and energy demand, making preparedness and climate resilience measures increasingly important for the region.