Climate change was once an academic research topic almost two decades ago at world Universities and among researchers. Developing countries didn’t take it seriously and presently are the most affected ones. Initially, as the developing countries were little contributors of greenhouse gases (gases emitted, are trapped, heat the atmosphere, for example, carbon dioxide), they thought it would only affect the developed world, not them. To their alarm, now they are the most affected in the form of unpredictable seasons, flash floods, unseasonal floods and rise in climate temperature. Still, the policy makers and implementers are not serious about tackling this looming monster of climate change and spending time attending Climate change seminars and conferences. Particularly, the mountainous region of Khyber Pukhtunkhwa and the whole of Gilgit Baltistan (GB) are on the verge of a geographical disaster due to the negative effects of climate change. The Hindukush, Pamirs, Karakoram, Himalayas, along with Mount K2, Gasherbrum, Broad Peak, Rakaposhi, and Mashabrum, are prominent features that house world glaciers. So Gilgit Baltistan is defined by frozen glaciers with timely snowfall and a melting pattern. Millions of inhabitants depend on this natural surface for drinking water and limited irrigation purposes.
Gilgit Baltistan is in the spotlight because almost all of the glacier’s melted water flows in the shape of the River Indus from the China-Tibet-Ladakh (Lake Mansarovar) region to the valleys of Gilgit Baltistan, feeding millions of human settlements, and later forms a lifeline of the vast plains of Punjab, Baluchistan, and Sindh and finally forms a massive delta south of Thatta. Discharges in the Arabian Sea (mixed with waters of other Rivers Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi and Sutlej) after travelling approximately 3100 kms. Any change in water level flow in the River Indus will be worse for the people of GB, but disastrous for all provinces of Pakistan, as they share the mutual interprovincial Water Apportionment Accord of 1991. Moreover, the Indian policy of “Water as a Weapon” by controlling the waters of the River Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi and Sutlej despite the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960. The ecology of mangroves created by the Indus delta also survives on Indus water and protects from seawater from destroying the land of the Sindh coastal area from seawater destruction.
Any change in water level flow in the River Indus will be worse for the people of GB, but disastrous for all provinces of Pakistan, as they share the mutual interprovincial Water Apportionment Accord of 1991.
One reason for the climatic disasters in GB is the increase in greenhouse gases and pollution worldwide. Another main factor is the people of the region and the country as a whole. Unbridled construction of concrete hotels and rest houses, blocking the natural waterways and no concept of waste water treatment plants in the major cities. Throwing of large waste in the form of plastic bottles, etc., by tourists (choking the natural drainages), ruthless cutting of trees to widen the roads, uncontrolled tourism and also the emissions from the vehicles are just examples. Drinking water-borne diseases in Pakistan are alarmingly on the rise, and the same is true for GB. Concerned authorities can check this aspect from hospitals/clinics’ records of patients; mostly in rural and mountainous areas, they don’t record. We are producing a young generation of patients and expect to compete with the youth of the developed countries. Climate change is severely impacting Gilgit-Baltistan’s life as a whole.
For a decade, Gilgit Baltistan has been facing Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs), flash floods, massive snow and landslides, cloud bursts, rising temperatures during the summer season, and it has now become a new pattern. Since 2020, the events of GLOFs and flooding have increased, and unstable lakes have formed. This is augmented by monsoon-driven flash floods, thousands of damaged houses, and damage to agriculture and infrastructure. GB also faces record-breaking heat waves. Water insecurity is a danger due to the fast melting of glaciers, landslides disrupt main transport links, which affects economic activity. It is reported that the forest area has dropped from 640,000 hectares to 295,000 hectares over the past 20 years due to climate change and human interventions. These impacts degrade infrastructure, disrupt livelihoods, and cause agricultural losses, with over 87% of local farmers reporting negative effects like reduced water supply and lower crop yields.
Melting of glaciers at the present rate and other climate disasters are not only an issue for Gilgit Baltistan, but for the whole country, which will haunt our coming generations. The ecology of mangroves created by the Indus delta also survives on Indus water and protects the land from seawater in the coastal area. Gilgit Baltistan Environmental Protection Agency (GB EPA) prepared a report in 2013 on the basis of climatic weather data from 1984 to 2013, and has covered all the aspects of climate change with recommendations. Therefore, the time for words has passed long now it is time to strictly monitor actions as mentioned in the GB EPA report, otherwise the ecology under climate change will reshape the social, cultural, economic and security structure of Gilgit Baltistan.
The writer is a retired Govt officer from MoD & GIS Consultant and can be reached at abidimtiaz1963 @gmail.com.