The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has kept its economic outlook for Pakistan unchanged for the current fiscal year. In its Asian Development Outlook report, ADB maintained Pakistan’s GDP growth forecast at 3%. It also kept the average inflation estimate at 5.8%, showing no revisions since its April 2025 report.
This projection contrasts with the targets set by Pakistan’s federal government. The government aims for a 4.2% GDP growth rate for the ongoing fiscal year. Additionally, it has set the inflation target at 7.5%, which is notably higher than ADB’s estimate.
The report indicates that ADB does not foresee major shifts in Pakistan’s economic indicators in the short term. While economic activity may improve gradually, the bank still expects modest growth. Inflation, although relatively low in ADB’s estimate, remains a key concern for the country’s policymakers.
In April 2025, ADB released an earlier version of the same report, which also predicted 3% GDP growth and 5.8% inflation. Those figures remain unchanged in this updated version, signaling a stable outlook despite global and domestic uncertainties.
Overall, ADB’s forecast shows cautious optimism but suggests Pakistan may face challenges in meeting its own ambitious targets. This gap between projections and targets highlights the need for consistent policy support and structural reforms.