Russia risks a major drop in oil revenue if India halts Russian crude purchases, analysts say. Losing its second-largest buyer would force Moscow to cut prices to attract new customers. U.S. President Donald Trump claims Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi agreed to curb Russian oil imports under a trade deal.
Trump on Monday reduced U.S. tariffs on Indian goods, saying the pact included stopping oil imports from Russia. India, however, has continued buying Russian crude, citing energy security and affordable supplies. Kremlin officials maintain energy cooperation with India remains strong after Putin’s December 2025 visit.
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Despite this, Indian refiners are gradually reducing Russian imports, already hurting Moscow’s revenue. Imports fell 22% in December 2025 to 1.38 million barrels per day, while OPEC’s share in India rose to 53.2%. Analysts warn further reductions would significantly pressure Russia, as China is the only alternative large buyer.
Russian oil prices have fallen to record lows, and the country faces a budget deficit due to energy shortfalls. Tankers carrying unsold Russian crude have increased, highlighting the difficulty of finding buyers amid Western sanctions and discounted oil flows. Production and exports may need to be cut if India further reduces purchases in April.
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India plans a temporary reduction in April when Russian-backed Nayara refinery undergoes maintenance. Future volumes will depend on Russia-Ukraine peace talks and India’s broader energy strategy. Trump suggested India could replace Russian imports with U.S. or Venezuelan oil, though experts say Middle Eastern crude is more likely to substitute Russian supplies.