The possibility of renewed talks comes against the backdrop of a war that has upended the global economy.
The ensuing US-Iran ceasefire, brokered by Pakistan and announced on April 8, has provided only a tenuous reprieve; shipping traffic through the Strait has slowed to a trickle, and roughly 13 million barrels per day of oil and 300 million cubic metres per day of LNG remain trapped inside the Gulf.
President Trump’s suggestion that talks could resume “within days” in Islamabad, conveyed in a text message to a New York Post reporter, raised hopes of a breakthrough. He also extended the two?week cease?fire while declaring that US forces will continue a naval blockade of Iranian ports until Tehran submits a proposal for discussion. On the social?media platform Truth Social, Trump boasted that the US Navy would blockade “any and all” ships entering or leaving the Strait of Hormuz and threatened to bomb Iran’s power plants and bridges if negotiations fail. The US Central Command later clarified that the blockade applies only to vessels bound for Iranian ports.
In a potentially significant development, government sources said Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is expected to arrive in Islamabad late on Friday with a small delegation, a move that could inject fresh momentum into Pakistan’s mediation efforts
Iranian officials reacted angrily. Esmaeil Baghaei, a spokesperson for Iran’s foreign ministry, accused the United States of violating the cease?fire from the start by maintaining the naval blockade and seizing an Iranian container ship. He warned that Iranian forces would respond if the US or Israel launched further attacks, and reiterated that Tehran’s 10?point proposal-circulated before the first Islamabad talks-remains the basis for any negotiations. Iran’s state news agency later dismissed reports of a second round of talks as a US “media game” and insisted that no negotiations would occur until Washington lifts the blockade.
On April 11, American and Iranian delegations had met at Islamabad’s Serena Hotel for what became a 21?hour marathon. The agenda ranged from Iran’s nuclear program and ballistic?missile development to sanctions relief, control of the Strait of Hormuz and regional security issues. By the time negotiators emerged, they had agreed on only one thing: to keep talking. Observers said differences over Hormuz were particularly stark. Iran wants to retain control of the waterway and has floated a plan to charge up to $2 million per ship for passage, a proposal the United States and its allies rejected as an attack on freedom of navigation.
Trump’s subsequent decision to impose a naval blockade exacerbated tensions. According to Reuters, after the bombing campaign began on February 28, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz-normally carrying around 20% of global oil and gas-“slowed to a trickle.”
Energy experts warn that even if hostilities end immediately, restoring oil flows to pre?war levels could take months or years.
No country has more at stake in the talks than Pakistan, which has taken the unusual step of mediating between its long?time ally in Washington and its western neighbour, Iran. The government of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif brokered the April 8 cease?fire and hosted the first round of talks three days later. It is now making elaborate preparations for a second round.
Analysts note that Islamabad is leveraging its relationships with Washington, Tehran, Riyadh and Beijing to elevate its international standing. In an interview with the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, political scientist Paul Staniland observed that Pakistan has “reached out to the Trump administration and Donald Trump personally…to try to build influence in Washington.” At the same time, Pakistan maintains close ties with Iran, has signed a defence pact with Saudi Arabia and enjoys strategic support from China. These connections, Staniland argues, have allowed Islamabad to position itself as the primary intermediary and to “punch above its weight” in regional diplomacy.
The strategy is not without risks. Pakistan is grappling with its own security challenges: conflict with Taliban?controlled Afghanistan, an insurgency in Balochistan, and a long?simmering rivalry with India. Critics worry that embroiling itself in a US-Iran war could provoke domestic backlash and strain its already fragile economy. Investigative journalist Umar Cheema noted on social media that Pakistan’s position is “awkward: with Iran, it pleads the US case; with the US, it pleads Iran’s case.” Both sides, he warned, might suspect Pakistan of “quietly taking the other side’s side.”
Former senior adviser Imran Shauket cautioned that Islamabad has invested significant political capital in the process, but with an unpredictable negotiating partner. “Islamabad has gone all in on this very worthwhile effort, but with a partner that is fickle at best. Worth watching whether Vance eventually makes the trip, or whether Pakistan ends up hosting a process that stalls without producing results, which would be a reputational cost after a promising opening,” he said.
Washington-based senior journalist Anwar Iqbal also warned against the media frenzy over the possible timing of talks, noting that coverage has focused too heavily on whether negotiations will take place “tomorrow or next week,” rather than on the deeper obstacles that continue to block an agreement.
Meanwhile, the US delegation for the prospective talks remains in flux. On Sunday, Trump announced that Vice President JD Vance, who led the first round, would not travel to Islamabad due to security concerns. Hours later, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Vance would, in fact, join the delegation, alongside Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son?in?law Jared Kushner. Flight?tracking data showed multiple US government aircraft carrying communications equipment landing at Pakistan’s Nur Khan Air Base.
Iran’s participation is even more uncertain. Tehran’s ambassador to Pakistan, Reza Amiri Moghadam, publicly stated that ongoing violations of international law-the US blockade, threats of further strikes and what he described as unreasonable demands-were incompatible with a “genuine pursuit of peace.”
In a potentially significant development, government sources said Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is expected to arrive in Islamabad late on Friday with a small delegation, a move that could inject fresh momentum into Pakistan’s mediation effort. His expected visit, if confirmed by Tehran, would mark the clearest sign yet that Iran is keeping the diplomatic channel with Pakistan open despite its public reservations over the US blockade and Washington’s recent threats.
According to the same sources, Araghchi is expected to hold important consultations with Pakistan’s mediation team. Officials believe those discussions could help pave the way for a second round of the Islamabad peace talks between the United States and Iran. The emphasis, Pakistani officials say, will be on narrowing the gap between the two sides enough to restore a structured negotiating process rather than allowing the cease-fire to collapse under the weight of public threats and military moves.
The logistical groundwork also appears to be in place. Government sources said a US logistics and security team is already present in Islamabad to support the negotiations, underscoring that Washington is preparing for the possibility of talks even as Tehran has not publicly confirmed its participation. The presence of advanced US personnel does not guarantee that the meeting will take place, but it does suggest that Islamabad remains an active diplomatic venue and that both sides are at least preserving the option of returning to the table.
However, all sides should keep in mind that, as energy columnist Ron Bousso warned, even in the most optimistic scenario-a successful peace deal and no new conflicts-restoring energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz to pre-war levels seems unlikely for years.
The writer is OpEd Editor (Daily Times) and can be reached at durenayab786 @gmail.com. She tweets @DureAkram.