For more than six decades, the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) has served as the cornerstone of Pakistan’s water security, providing the certainty needed to develop the Indus Basin Irrigation System and sustain the country’s agriculture, hydropower generation and economic growth.
Widely regarded as one of the world’s most enduring transboundary water agreements, the Treaty has also played an important role in maintaining regional stability.
India’s decision in May 2025 to hold the treaty in abeyance, suspend hydrological data sharing and accelerate upstream infrastructure development has introduced significant uncertainty into Pakistan’s water management framework. Beyond legal and diplomatic concerns, the growing ability to influence the timing and predictability of river flows, particularly in the Chenab River poses a serious challenge to Pakistan’s long-term water, food, energy and economic security.
Lt Gen (r) Muhammad Saeed, Chairman Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) said Pakistan’s hydropower system, irrigated agriculture and much of its economic development have evolved on the foundation of uninterrupted and predictable flows from the western rivers. The treaty has also contributed significantly in the overall strategic stability of South Asia.
In the recently concluded Water Convention under UN arrangements at Geneva, he said nation states have been asked to strengthen governance and transparency on shared river basins in pursuit of the “One Water-One Vision” principle.
“India, on the contrary, is moving entirely in the opposite direction,” he said, adding that regardless of the legal debate concerning the Indian decision, its strategic consequences for Pakistan are very serious.
“It marks a departure from more than six decades of treaty-based water cooperation and introduces uncertainty into a river system that guarantees Pakistan’s water, food and energy security,” he said.
The WAPDA Chairman pointed out that since May 2025, India continued to accelerate the development of upstream infrastructure on the western rivers, while inviting bids for fast-track implementation of additional projects, including the planned expansion of Ranbir Canal and the Chenab-Beas Link Tunnel.
He warned that considered collectively, these developments could severely threaten Pakistan’s long-term water security.
He also mentioned that India had suspended sharing of hydrological data for the Western Rivers with Pakistan’s Commissioner for Indus Waters, contrary to the data-sharing obligations envisaged under the IWT. During the 2025 flood season, the absence of timely river flow information adversely affected Pakistan’s flood forecasting and emergency preparedness, increasing risks to human life, critical infrastructure, and livelihoods.
“Such actions are inconsistent with humanitarian principles, undermine international water-course cooperation and violate the fundamental objective of safeguarding populations from transboundary flood hazards. Moreover, Indian actions limit Pakistan’s ability of realising Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 6.5, 6.5.1 and 6.5.2, which are globally shared objectives,” he said. The Chairman WAPDA said as a lower riparian state, Pakistan’s irrigation system, reservoirs, agriculture, growing population, and industrial development depended heavily on reliable and predictable river flows originating upstream.
“Any uncertainty in the quantity or timing of these flows presents a strategic challenge that extends far beyond conventional water management, directly affecting national water, food, energy, environmental, and economic security,” he said.
The geographical configuration of Indus Basin makes the reliability and predictability of flows in Chenab River indispensable for safe and efficient operation of IBIS. The non-availability of river flow data from upstream significantly weakens Pakistan’s ability to regulate canal diversions, manage floods, and issue timely warnings, he added.
“In the event of extreme hydrological conditions, the absence of such information can endanger human lives, damage critical infrastructure, and increase economic losses,” he said.
The emerging challenge is the cumulative capability created by multiple upstream projects to increasingly regulate the quantity, timing and predictability of flows entering Pakistan.
“Carrying an average annual flow of 25 million acre-feet (MAF) at Marala, it irrigates nearly 10 million acres through the Marala, Khanki, Qadirabad, Trimmu and Punjnad Barrages. These command areas constitute one of Pakistan’s most productive agricultural regions, contributing significantly to national production of wheat, rice, sugarcane and other strategic crops while supporting millions of rural livelihoods,” he said.
Federal Minister for Information and Broadcasting Attaullah Tarar called Pakistan’s right to water under the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) as its “inalienable right” and “a lifeline that the country will protect”.
Tarar in a post on X said India’s unilateral attempt to hold the IWT in abeyance had “no legal or moral standing” describing the move as a failed attempt that had caused India “nothing but embarrassment.” He said the action was a clear violation of the “One Water-One Vision” principle endorsed by the United Nations.
Barrister Danyal Chaudhry, Federal Parliamentary Secretary for Information and Broadcasting terming water as “national security” said the challenges surrounding the Indus Waters Treaty underscore the importance of upholding international commitments, ensuring transparency and pursuing dialogue over unilateral actions.