Pakistan’s poverty rate has climbed to 28.8 percent in 2024-25, up from 21.9 percent in 2018-19, marking a sharp reversal in earlier gains and reflecting mounting economic pressures over the past six years, according to official estimates.
Read More: Nearly 45% of Pakistanis now live below poverty line: World bank
The latest figures, based on the Household Integrated Economic Survey (HIES) 2024-25, show poverty has increased across all provinces, with particularly notable rises in Punjab and Sindh, while Balochistan recorded a smaller uptick, official sources said. The national poverty headcount has risen by 6.9 percentage points since 2018-19.
Officials attributed the surge to multiple shocks, including three stabilisation programmes with the International Monetary Fund, the economic fallout from COVID-19, commodity price cycles, high inflation, slower GDP growth, devastating floods, and policy changes such as the withdrawal of wheat support prices.
Federal Minister for Planning Ahsan Iqbal is expected to formally release the poverty estimates. The Poverty Estimation Committee, chaired by economist G. M. Arif, has already submitted its report to the government.
According to the Ministry of Planning, Development and Special Initiatives, the estimates use the Cost of Basic Needs (CBN) approach, adjusted for inflation through the consumer price index, to determine the poverty line. Pakistan adopted this methodology after consultations with the World Bank.
Historically, Pakistan had reduced poverty significantly, from 50.4 percent in 2005-06 to 21.9 percent in 2018-19, with declines observed in both rural and urban areas. In 2018-19, urban poverty stood at 11 percent and rural poverty at 28.2 percent.
Read More: Poverty increased by 7pc in Pakistan last year: WB report
The new estimates indicate that this downward trend has reversed amid economic instability. Officials said additional labour market data from the upcoming Labour Force Survey would help provide a fuller picture of income dynamics and living standards across the country.