Asian countries already facing economic and energy challenges linked to Middle East instability are now preparing for the possible arrival of a strong El Nino weather event that could worsen regional pressures.
Read More: Super El Nino threat raises flood fears across Pakistan
The United Nations’ weather agency has warned that El Nino conditions may develop between May and July, with early indicators suggesting the event could be particularly intense. Although “super El Nino” is not an official scientific term, experts say current ocean temperature patterns resemble conditions seen before the powerful 1997-98 El Nino.
‘Super El Niño’ raises fears for Asia reeling from Middle East conflict https://t.co/rOWhCkFnKW
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El Nino is a naturally occurring climate pattern that disrupts global weather systems, often bringing drought, heatwaves, wildfires, or heavy rainfall depending on the region.
For Southeast Asia, the phenomenon often reduces rainfall, particularly in countries such as Indonesia, increasing risks of drought and forest fires. Indonesian authorities have already flagged vulnerable peatland areas and warned of potentially the lowest rainfall levels in decades.
The climate concerns come as Asia also faces disruptions from tensions in the Middle East, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global oil and gas supplies. Any prolonged supply constraints could further pressure energy markets as hotter weather boosts electricity demand for cooling.
Experts warn countries heavily reliant on imported fuel may face higher costs, fuel shortages, and slower economic growth if energy supplies remain strained during peak summer demand.
Hydropower-dependent economies may face added risks as drought conditions lower water levels needed for electricity generation. Nations in Southeast Asia, including parts of the Mekong region and Malaysia, could be particularly vulnerable.
Agriculture is another major concern. Drier conditions or sudden floods linked to El Nino could disrupt crop production at a time when farmers are already dealing with rising fertiliser and fuel costs.
Analysts say a combination of climate risks and geopolitical instability could intensify food inflation and supply chain challenges across the region.
Read More: El Niño likely to hit 2026 monsoon season
Governments are being urged to strengthen energy resilience, diversify power sources, and improve climate preparedness as Asia braces for another potentially disruptive weather cycle.