Following the recent protest lockdown led by the Jammu and Kashmir Joint Awami Action Committee (JAAC), Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) once again finds itself at a critical political juncture. After high-level negotiations with Pakistan’s federal committee and the acceptance of several key demands, the fragility of the existing setup in Muzaffarabad has become increasingly visible.
The movement, which mobilised citizens on a scale rarely seen before, effectively sidelined the region’s traditional political elite. The ruling alliance — consisting of dissident PTI members, along with lawmakers from the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) and the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) — is now facing mounting criticism at both the political and public levels.
Rumours of Prime Minister Chaudhry Anwar-ul-Haq’s possible resignation have fuelled further uncertainty. While political changes in AJK are not new, the current situation is unusually delicate. Anwar-ul-Haq is the third Prime Minister within the current assembly’s term — a sign of growing instability within the region’s parliamentary structure.
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The Government of AJK was originally conceived as a revolutionary representative authority for the entire former princely state of Jammu and Kashmir. However, since 1974, it has functioned as a self-governing entity under Pakistan’s administrative oversight through the Interim Constitution Act. This framework provides a democratic mechanism consistent with the principles endorsed by the United Nations for the people of the disputed territory.
Under Article 28, the authority to dissolve the Legislative Assembly lies solely with the Prime Minister, while the President is bound to act upon such advice. In the event of dissolution, the Prime Minister continues in a caretaker capacity until a new one is elected. If the Prime Minister resigns or becomes unable to perform his duties, the Senior Minister assumes charge as Acting Prime Minister.
The Constitution also permits the imposition of emergency rule, but only in extreme cases where internal unrest threatens regional stability or security. In such circumstances, the President may advise the Prime Minister of Pakistan to declare a state of emergency. Similarly, Article 56 defines Pakistan’s constitutional responsibilities towards AJK, ensuring continuity of governance. In both cases, fresh elections are constitutionally required within two to four months.
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The delay in appointing the Chief Election Commissioner (CEC) is escalating political tensions and raising further concerns. The Constitution mandates that the Prime Minister and the Leader of the Opposition jointly submit a panel of names to the Prime Minister of Pakistan, in his capacity as Chairman of the Kashmir Council, for the final appointment.
With less than ten months remaining before the next general elections, the absence of a CEC casts serious doubt on the credibility and scheduling of those elections. Despite clear judicial directives, Prime Minister Chaudhry Anwar-ul-Haq’s reluctance to forward the panel has raised widespread public suspicion.
These apprehensions are further intensified by the remarks of former Prime Minister Raja Farooq Haider Khan, who, following India’s revocation of Jammu and Kashmir’s special status on August 5, 2019, repeatedly warned that he might be “the last Prime Minister of the Azad Government.”
Another possible twist lies in a vote of no confidence against Prime Minister Anwar-ul-Haq. In the 53-member assembly, the dissident PTI faction holds 20 seats, the PPP 13, the PML-N 8, and the Muslim Conference 1, forming the ruling coalition. On the opposition benches sit seven PTI members and one from the Jammu and Kashmir People’s Party.
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It was in June 2023 that some unknown forces managed, almost overnight, to rally 48 members and elect Anwar-ul-Haq as Prime Minister — an event still described in political circles as a midnight manoeuvre. Now, speculation grows over whether these actors could once again engineer a political shift by bringing in a new Prime Minister through a no-confidence motion to stabilise the government ahead of elections.
Adding another dimension to the crisis is the serious illness of President Barrister Sultan Mehmood Chaudhry. Under constitutional provisions, if the President is unable to perform his duties, the Speaker of the Assembly automatically assumes the role of Acting President.
The uncertainty is not confined to AJK alone. More than 1.5 million overseas Kashmiri expatriates across the world are closely monitoring developments in Muzaffarabad. Meanwhile, within Pakistan, even mobile service providers have reportedly circulated alert tones warning citizens of possible external hostilities — a move seen by many as amplifying public anxiety.
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At the same time, a series of anonymous social media accounts have emerged, attempting to link the Awami Action Committee’s movement to India’s intelligence agency, RAW — an allegation widely dismissed by observers but one that risks deepening mistrust within an already volatile environment.
If the Chief Election Commissioner is appointed soon, it could pave the way for fresh elections and help restore a sense of political legitimacy. But for now, Azad Kashmir remains engulfed in uncertainty — caught between constitutional ambiguity, political manoeuvring, and the pressures of regional geopolitics.
For the people of this fragile yet politically vibrant region, the question remains: will their leaders choose stability over intrigue, and transparency over expedience?