With global interest in returning to the Moon rapidly accelerating, space experts are warning that preventing collisions in lunar orbit may soon become a major challenge. Over the past two years, twelve missions have been launched toward the Moon, nearly half by private companies, signalling a new era of intense competition and congestion.
Although cislunar space—the vast region between Earth and the Moon—is enormous, only a small number of stable orbits are considered suitable for long-term missions. According to The Conversation, this concentration raises the likelihood of spacecraft paths intersecting far more quickly than expected. Tracking objects in this region is another hurdle, as Earth-based sensors struggle with distance and the Moon’s bright glare.
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Recent research published in the Journal of Spacecraft and Rockets suggests that collision-avoidance manoeuvres may become routine. The study found that with just 50 satellites in lunar orbit, each spacecraft might need to adjust its position up to four times annually. India’s ISRO has already manoeuvred its Chandrayaan-2 orbiter three times in four years — even when only six spacecraft were orbiting the Moon.
To address the growing risks, agencies are developing new tools and coordination mechanisms. NASA’s lunar traffic monitoring programme compares operators’ current and planned trajectory data to flag potential close approaches, while the U.S. Air Force Research Laboratory is preparing to launch the Oracle system in 2027 to track hard-to-see objects from a Lagrange point. The United Nations’ Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space has also formed a group to examine global coordination needs.
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With NASA planning its next crewed lunar mission for early 2026 and both commercial and national missions rising sharply, experts emphasize that international cooperation will be essential. Without robust monitoring and shared standards, the dream of sustainable lunar exploration could face serious obstacles.