OPEC+ announced a new system to set oil production quotas, aiming to reward investment and stabilize markets. The Maximum Sustainable Capacity (MSC) mechanism will assess members’ production potential for 2027. Gulf producers and other members are expected to increase spending to expand output under the new system.
The MSC review runs from January to September and uses reputable auditors for most members. Russia, Venezuela, and Iran have alternative methods due to sanctions or policy choices. OPEC+ will approve capacities in November, setting output quotas as equal percentages of assessed capacity. Annual reviews will follow to maintain accuracy.
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Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said the changes encourage discipline and investments in production. The mechanism addresses previous challenges where some members exceeded quotas, causing market volatility. OPEC+ currently supplies nearly half of the world’s 106 million barrels per day.
Wealthier Gulf producers with low costs, such as Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Kuwait, are likely to benefit most. The UAE plans to expand production from 4.85 million bpd to 5 million bpd by 2027, possibly reaching 6 million bpd. ADNOC will invest $150 billion over five years to boost conventional and unconventional reserves.
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The new quota system could prompt a wave of upstream investments across OPEC+ members. Analysts see it as a shift from short-term oversupply worries toward long-term capacity growth. This may reshape global oil markets and give Gulf producers a competitive edge.