Global nuclear arms control is expected to weaken further in 2026, experts warn. Key treaties face expiry or deadlock, raising risks to international security. Analysts describe the outlook for nuclear safeguards as bleak.
Two major developments will shape the year ahead. The US-Russia New START treaty expires on February 5, removing limits on nuclear arsenals. In April, New York will host the NPT Review Conference, which experts expect to end without consensus.
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Specialists say repeated failures at past NPT conferences signal deeper problems. Alexandra Bell of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists said arms control structures are deteriorating. Russian analyst Anton Khlopkov warned the system is nearing complete dismantlement.
Meanwhile, global tensions intensified in 2025 with nuclear-related actions and rhetoric. Experts point to rising rivalry, new technologies, and China’s growing nuclear role. These shifts have weakened the old US-Russia framework that once anchored arms control.
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Although immediate fallout may be limited, analysts fear long-term damage. The loss of inspections and dialogue reduces trust between nuclear powers. Experts warn fewer safeguards will make crisis management far more difficult.