TOKYO: Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi ruling party is on track for a commanding victory in next week’s lower house election, according to a survey conducted by the Asahi newspaper, boosting her mandate for expansionary fiscal policies.
Read More: PM Takaichi calls snap election in Japan
The poll, released Sunday, indicates Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is likely to far exceed the 233-seat majority threshold in the 465-member lower house. Currently holding 198 seats, the party, along with its coalition partner, the Japan Innovation Party (Ishin), could secure around 300 seats.
A strong showing would consolidate Takaichi’s leadership and support her ambitious fiscal agenda, which includes increased government spending and potential tax cuts. Analysts warn such policies could intensify concerns over Japan’s finances and pressure bond yields.
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s party is set for a landslide win in next week’s lower house election, according to a survey, increasing the likelihood that #Japan will continue with big spending and tax cuts.#SanaeTakaichi pic.twitter.com/qoGpBEC2Q4
— DD News (@DDNewslive) February 2, 2026
Keisuke Tsuruta, senior bond strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities, said, “A huge LDP win would further strengthen Takaichi’s grip on power. It won’t be surprising for markets to see a higher chance of Takaichi pursuing her flagship proactive fiscal policies, including a consumption tax cut.”
Government bond yields rose Monday as investors factored in the probability of a strengthened mandate for Takaichi’s economic agenda.
Meanwhile, Japan’s largest opposition party, the Centrist Reform Alliance, is facing significant losses and could lose half its 167 seats, the Asahi survey found.
Read More: Japan’s PM dissolves parliament, calls early elections
Takaichi dissolved parliament last month and called the snap election for February 8, aiming to secure a mandate to reflate the economy. Her plan to suspend an 8% food sales levy for two years last month triggered a market sell-off, reflecting investor concerns over Japan’s already high public debt—more than twice the country’s GDP.
A decisive LDP victory would enable Takaichi to advance her expansionary economic measures, shaping Japan’s fiscal and political landscape for the coming years.