A senior American security expert has warned that the risk of a devastating conflict between Pakistan and India remains high, saying even a minor incident could trigger a major escalation in the already tense region.
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Elizabeth Threlkeld, senior fellow at the Stimson Center and director of its South Asia programme, expressed these concerns in a detailed article published in a US foreign affairs journal. She argued that the evolving security environment in South Asia is becoming increasingly unstable due to new military strategies, advanced weapons systems, and growing confidence on both sides.
According to Threlkeld, Pakistan and India’s brief but intense military confrontation in May 2025 should not be seen as an isolated event but rather as part of a broader shift in regional security dynamics. She warned that both nuclear-armed neighbours appear to be preparing for faster, deeper, and more destructive forms of conventional warfare, while still attempting to avoid crossing the nuclear threshold.
The analyst noted that any future conflict could escalate rapidly due to miscalculations, misinformation, and the expanding role of social media in spreading unverified claims during crises. She also highlighted the possibility of involvement by major powers such as China and the United States, which could further complicate diplomatic efforts.
Threlkeld added that even limited military exchanges could become more dangerous due to the use of modern technologies including drones, missiles, cyber operations, and naval capabilities. She also pointed to the risk of strategic assets such as water resources becoming potential flashpoints in any confrontation.
The report stressed that both countries are increasingly willing to take risks, raising the likelihood that a small incident could spiral into a broader and more unpredictable conflict. Such escalation, she warned, could overwhelm diplomatic channels and make crisis management far more difficult for external powers, including Washington.
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She concluded that while a full-scale nuclear war remains unlikely, the speed and intensity of future conflicts in South Asia could bring the region dangerously close to catastrophic outcomes if tensions are not managed carefully.