Despite the tensions between the US and the Russian Federation, the VIIIth Moscow Conference on International Security (MCIS) ended on a high note. Shaped on Munich, Shangri-La and other security conferences of high repute, Moscow did well to host an event of this stature eighth time in a row.
This scribe had the opportunity to participate in the event this year too and presented a paper on ‘Military Dangers and Threats in the Modern World-Responding to Security Challenges and Threats’.
The highlight of the 2019 Conference was the impact of emerging technologies on security perception. Discussing the concepts of swarm technology to saturate the adversary’s defence, artificial intelligence and the use of quantum physics to enhance the effects of autonomous weapon systems was breathtaking. Hybrid warfare was thrashed out in great detail while even the use of extreme weather and tinkering with the environment as weapons of war and the concept of surrogate warfare were dwelled upon.
The coming of age of the Russian Federation can be gauged from the fact that speakers like Harlan Ullman, Senior Advisor at the US Atlantic Council were invited, who blamed Russia for adopting a policy of confrontation. He spoke of the four horsemen of Apocalypse, the biblical prophecy from the Book of Revelation by John of Patmos at 6: 1-8, citing “Broken Governments, Failing Economies, Ideological Extremism and Environmental Disruption” as the harbingers of death.
Speakers deliberated upon maritime security, militarization of space, colour revolutions, cyber threats and arctic challenges in the backdrop of regional balance of force and global security.
The outcomes of ISIS defeat in Syria and Iraq; stabilizing the region and addressing terrorist threats in the environment of their transformation were pondered on. The application of new technologies for internal political destabilization and fifth generation warfare as a reflection and transformation of views on the use of military force were brought out. It was heartening to note that the long unresolved issues of Kashmir and Palestine were also focused upon; especially the former since it can trigger an armed conflict between nuclear weapons equipped adversaries.
With 30 Defence Ministers and over 850 participants including military top brass from 90 countries, the MCIS-2019 provided a colorful representation.
Two major absences were the Defence Ministers of Pakistan and India. Sanjay Mitra, Secretary of Defence of India addressed the final session on a benign topic like “International peacekeeping effort: new perceptions and military cooperation’. India’s views on the South China Sea dispute were rejected by the hosts.
The outcomes of ISIS defeat in Syria and Iraq were brought into discourse, in the backdrop of stabilizing the region and addressing terrorist threats in the environment of their transformation
In his welcome message, President Vladimir Putin greeted the participants and looked forward to open and impartial dialogue. Mr. Putin observed that serious transformation of global ties is being witnessed. To achieve global domination, hotbeds of tension are being rekindled. He hinted that some countries impose economic and political pressure to enforce their decisions and destabilize legal governments. It was implied that hybrid war was executed in Venezuela.
The Minister of Defence of the Russian Federation General Sergey Shoygu looked forward to the 2019 Conference comprising high level officials including defence ministers, chiefs of general staff, experts from research centers and non-governmental organizations discussing an agenda encompassing the problems of utmost significance in terms of shaping views on the international security. General Sergey talked of the revival of frozen conflicts. The situation in Middle East with special emphasis on Syria, South Asia, Sri Lanka and Africa came under debate.
Sergey Lavrov, Russia’s Foreign Minister addressed the opening session seeking joint cooperation to resolve conflicts while a welcome address by UN Secretary General Antonio Gutteres’s welcome address was read out by the Under Secretary for Peace Operations Jean Pierre Lacroix. Vladimir Norov, the Secretary General of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) expressed his views. Although the US had boycotted the conference, ample US opinion through think tank experts, who were candid in expressing their views.
The outcomes of ISIS defeat in Syria and Iraq were brought into discourse, in the backdrop of stabilizing the region and addressing terrorist threats in the environment of their transformation. Ballistic Missile Defence and placement of weapons in space generated heated debate. Military-to-Military peacekeeping engagements engendered interest perhaps in the backdrop of the Russian experience in Syria.
Whereas the MCIS focused on modern threats, it also brought out that direct confrontation between states is no longer feasible instead proxy actors and technology play an important role. The question that was asked is whose Security is Important? State, masses or Groups while which actors are important? State or non-State? Thus, concluding that owing to the threat emanating from terrorists, ideologists and criminals, military threats are no longer the most important focus of threat analysis.
Most new threats are not as much pertaining to the survival of the state but to society and individuals. The new threats demand concerted effort and convergence of strategy to bring about peace.
The writer is a retired Group Captain of PAF. He is a columnist, analyst and TV talk show host, who has authored six books on current affairs, including three on China